J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong is a marketing professor at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. He is a self-proclaimed "pioneer" of forecasting methods, as well as an avid climate change skeptic. Armstrong is a speaker at the International Conference on Climate Change (2009), organized by the Heartland Institute think tank.

According to his CV, Armstrong's educational background is primarily in marketing, with bachelors degrees from Lehigh University in "industrial engineering" in 1960 and "applied science" in 1959.

Forecasting methods
Armstrong is a co-founder of the Journal of Forecasting, the International Journal of Forecasting, the International Symposium on Forecasting, and forecastingprinciples.com. He is also a co-developer of new methods of forecasting including rule-based forecasting, causal forces for extrapolation, simulated interaction, and structured analogies. Most of his forecasting deals with business or political trends.

The scientific writers of RealClimate have critiqued Armstrong's application of his forecasting methods to climate change. They point out that his critique was based on reading "none of the primary literature," just one chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report and "an un-peer reviewed hatchet job on the Stern report," an influential 2006 report conducted for the British government. Armstrong and his co-author, Kesten Green, "appear to have talked to none" of the climate researchers or modeling groups, RealClimate added.

Related SourceWatch articles

 * Global warming skeptics
 * Heartland Institute
 * International Conference on Climate Change (2009)
 * Kesten Green
 * SourceWatch:Project:Creating Articles on Sponsors and Speakers at The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change

Articles and Presentations by Armstrong

 * J. Scott Armstrong, "Serious Problems with IPCC Forecasting Procedures - A Forecaster’s View of Climate Change: Methodology Also Counts", Presentation to the Heartland Institute's International Conference on Climate Change (2009), March 9, 2009. (PowerPoint)