Wayne White

Wayne White, an adjunct scholar with the Washington-based Middle East Institute, is a member Group Four: Strategic Environment of the Iraq Study Group. 

White was a "top Middle East analyst" for the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research for 26 years until March 2005. He was the Bureau's "principal Iraq analyst" from 2003-05 and a "veteran" of the National Intelligence Estimate "process". 

On war with Iran
"'I've seen some of the planning ... You're not talking about a surgical strike. ... You're talking about a war against Iran' that likely would destabilize the Middle East for years, White told the Middle East Policy Council, a Washington think tank." 

White said that should President George W. Bush "opt to attack Iran, the region will turn from a controversy pot to a cauldron with Iraq at its core." 

On al-Quds forces in Iran and Iraq
Wayne White "said he did not think it was likely the Quds Force was supporting Sunni terrorists who were targeting Shiite political leaders and civilians, but stressed he did not know," Eli Lake reported January 3, 2007, for the New York Sun.

"'I have no doubt whatsoever that al-Quds forces are on the ground and active in Iraq,' he said. 'That's about it. I saw evidence that Moqtada al-Sadr was in contact with Sunni Arab insurgents in western Iraq, but I never saw evidence of Iran in that loop.'

"Mr. White added, 'One problem that we all have is that people consistently conduct analysis assuming that the actor is going to act predictably or rationally based on their overall mindset or ideology. Sometimes people don't.

"'One example of a mindset that may hinder analysis of Iranian involvement is the belief that Iran would never have any dealings with militant Sunni Arabs. But they allowed hundreds of Al Qaeda operatives to escape from Afghanistan across their territory in 2002,' he said," Lake wrote.

On Progress in Iraq
On December 8, 2005, Robin Wright and Saad Sarhan quoted White in the Washington Post as saying: "Progress is running far behind Iraqi expectations in virtually every area, ... In their view, most Iraqis are not seeing 'amazing progress.' All too many of them live in constant danger, with less electricity in many areas than under Saddam Hussein.'"

On the Iraq Study Group report and Iraq "slipping out of control"
"White, said the panel also faced the question of whether its advice may be coming too late to do much good," Paul Richter wrote in the November 30, 2006, Los Angeles Times.

"White said that he and other experts convinced the panel that it should complete its report by the end of this year, and not wait until next spring, the original deadline date, because of the deterioration of Iraq.

"Even a December release 'may not be in time,' said White. 'The situation on the ground is, frankly, slipping out of control.'"

On the Bush administration decision to "side with the Shia"
"Deciding to side with the Shia is probably the most inflammatory thing we could do right now," White, a member of the Iraq Study Group, told the New York Times, Richard Rawles reported January 8, 2007, for OpEdNews.com. "It would be a multi-headed catastrophe," White said.

On Nouri al-Maliki, Moqtada al-Sadr, and a troop surge in Iraq
"Maliki has assured the U.S. that 'sectarian instruction and interference' in Iraqi security forces will end, the senior White House officials said" and President Bush "'continues to think that Maliki is the right man for the job.' ... Outside the White House, however, doubts about Maliki run deep," CanWest reporter Sheldon Alberts wrote January 10, 2007.

"'Maliki is in way over his head'," White said, "[citing] Maliki’s ties to Sadr as most worrisome. ... 'Maliki associates with Shia political parties that are carrying out death squad operations,' he says. 'His ability to deliver on almost anything is highly questionable'," Alberts wrote.

"The Bush plan has been widely derided as 'too little, too late.' With the additional soldiers, the U.S. presence in Iraq will not quite top 155,000. For the first three years of the war, military experts complained that there simply weren't enough troops to pacify Iraq. 'As of a year ago, the surge would have added combat power to your force relative to its challenge,' says Wayne White, formerly the State Department's top intelligence expert on Iraq. 'Since then, we've had a virtual sectarian civil war opening up a second front.'"

White "said the sectarian violence in Iraq is so bad that even a massive surge of troops would have 'less than a 50-50' chance of success" and called Baghdad "a Shiite-Sunni Stalingrad." 

On the execution of Saddam Hussein
"'He was a monster. He was the only Arab leader who went beyond the red line, which was genocide,' said Wayne White, a former State Department Iraq expert." 

Related SourceWatch Resources

 * intelligence community
 * McCain doctrine
 * war in Iran
 * war in Iraq

2005

 * Press Release: "Wayne White Joins MEI Public Policy Center as Adjunct Scholar," Middle East Institute, March 21, 2005.
 * Robin Wright and Saad Sarhan, "In Cities Bush Cited, Progress Is Relative," Washington Post, December 8, 2005.

2006

 * Iraq Study Group: Expert Working Groups and Military Senior Advisor Panel, United States Institute of Peace.
 * "Warnings unheeded. Testimony Delivered To Ad Hoc Senate Hearing on Pre-War Iraq Intelligence & Related Matters, Washington, DC," Middle East Institute, June 26, 2006.
 * Kevin Silverstein, "Six Questions for Wayne White on the Bush Administration and the Middle East Crisis," Harper's Magazine, July 23, 2006.
 * Dan Murphy, "Israel and Lebanon: a long and bitter entanglement. Does the latest conflict fit historical trends or is this something different?" Christian Science Monitor, July 28, 2006.
 * Ray McGovern, "Don't Look for Much From the 'Bipartisan' Iraq Study Group," truthout, November 14, 2006.
 * Larry Chin, "The Iraq Study Group: Official damage control and cover-up," GlobalResearch.ca, November 27, 2006.
 * Paul Richter, "Iraq study group wraps up talks. Under increasing pressure, the bipartisan panel arrives at a consensus -- if not a quick fix -- for a report that is expected to take a middle course," Los Angeles Times, November 30, 2006.
 * Gareth Porter, "Advice Not Taken. A top former State Department expert explained to the Iraq Study Group's members why their preferred plan would most likely fail. They ignored his warning," The American Prospect, December 18, 2006.
 * Larry Kaplow, "Saddam Hussein executed," Cox News Service (Palm Beach Post (Florida)), December 29, 2006; (Atlanta Journal-Constitution, December 30, 2006.

2007

 * Wayne White, The Iraq Study Group Report: General Comments on the ISG Report, January 1, 2007, 2:23 pm.
 * Eli Lake, "Iran's Secret Plan For Mayhem," New York Sun, January 3, 2007; AINA (Assyrian International News Agency), January 6, 2007.
 * "U.S. Finds Iran's 'Smoking Gun' in Iraq," NewsMax, January 4, 2007.
 * George Will, "Surge, or Power Failure?" Washington Post, January 7, 2007.
 * Richard Rawles, "Surge to Purge: The 80% Solution in Iraq," OpEdNews.com, January 8, 2007.
 * Mary Louise Kennedy, "Timing of Iraq Intelligence Estimate Questioned," Morning Edition/NPR, January 9, 2007.
 * Sheldon Alberts, "Bush banks on Iraq’s faltering government," CanWest News Service (The [Montreal] Gazette (Canada)), January 10, 2007.
 * Sheldon Alberts, "Democrats wage war on Bush's Iraq strategy," CanWest News Service (National Post (Canada)), January 10, 2007.
 * Kevin Whitelaw and Anna Mulrine, "4th and Long. President Bush's Commitment of more troops to Iraq isn't just unpopular-it's a last-ditch gamble against tough odds," U.S. News & World Report, January 14, 2007.
 * Jumana Al Tamimi, "Attack on Iran 'will deal fatal blow to Iraq'," GulfNews.com, January 17, 2007.
 * "U.S. plans envision broad attack on Iran: analyst," Reuters, January 19, 2007.