Climate change and hurricanes

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), representing the overwhelming scientific view on climate change, in its 2001 technical summary was cautious about the connection between hurricanes and climate change.

"Based on limited data, the observed variations in the intensity and frequency of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones and severe local storms show no clear trends in the last half of the 20th century, although multi-decadal fluctuations are sometimes apparent," it stated on the historical data.

As to projections on what might occur with increasing buildup of carbon dioxide the IPCC expressed cautious concern. "There is little consistent evidence that shows changes in the projected frequency of tropical cyclones and areas of formation. However, some measures of intensities show projected increases, and some theoretical and modelling studies suggest that the upper limit of these intensities could increase. Mean and peak precipitation intensities from tropical cyclones are likely to increase appreciably," it stated. 

Related SourceWatch Resources

 * climate change/Related SourceWatch Resources

Scientific reports

 * US Global Change Research Program, "Hurricanes: A compendium of hurricane information: Hurricanes & Climate Change", August 29, 2005.
 * National Center for Atmospheric Research, "Climate Change Inevitable in 21st Century Sea Level Rise To Outpace Temperature Increase", Media Release on Science article, March 17, 2005.
 * K. A. Emanuel, "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years", Nature, July 31, 2005.
 * Thomas Knutson, "New Orleans, Hurricanes and Climate Change: A Question of Resiliency", Flyer from American Meteorological Society seminar, Washington, DC. June 20, 2005. (Knutson is a Research Scientist, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ.)
 * R.A. Pielke, Jr., C. Landsea, M. Mayfield, J. Laver and R. Pasch, "Hurricanes and global warming'", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2005 (in press).
 * David Stipp, "Katrinas Aftermath: The High Cost Of Climate Change: To some researchers, Katrina looks like a harbinger of much more catastrophic weather to come", Fortune, September 2, 2005.
 * Stefan Rahmstorf, Michael Mann, Rasmus Benestad, Gavin Schmidt, and William Connolley, "Hurricanes and Global Warming - Is There a Connection?", RealClimate.org, September 2, 2005.