Pacific Basin coal market

Background
Most coal, and particularly the lower value thermal coal, is burnt either in pit-head power stations or relatively close to where it is mined. As a result, just over 15% of thermal coal produced is traded across national boundaries.

According to the International Energy Agency, in 2011 the total international coal trade was 1.139 billion tonnes out of total global demand of approximately 7.384 billion tonnes. Of this thermal coal, which is overwhelmingly used in coal-fired power stations, accounted for just under three quarters. The remainder is metallurgical coal, which is overwhelmingly used in steel production.

Of the traded coal, just over 90% is exported by ships with the remainder transported overland. The overland trade primarily consists of exports between Eastern Europe and Eurasia and of metallurgical coal from Mongolia to China. However, the global seaborne trade of 1.029 billion tonnes is dominated by exports from and to countries within the Pacific basin. Thermal coal exports within the Pacific Basin are dominated by Indonesia and Australia, metallurgical coal by Australia. The dominant importers are China, Japan, South Korea, India and Taiwan.

The International Energy Agency estimated that in 2011 approximately 573 million tonnes of thermal coal and 163 million tonnes of metallurgical coal were imported by Pacific Basin countries.

Key factors affecting the Pacific coal trade
Some of the key factors affecting the seaborne Pacific coal trade are:
 * the level of growth in coal demand for coal-fired power generation in China and India; by some estimates thi could account for 70% of the growth in coal demand;
 * the growth in steel production produced via conventional blast furnaces, especially in India and China;
 * the level of renewables, gas and nuclear substitution for existing and proposed coal demand;
 * the amount of additional coal mine production capacity and the underlying costs of production;
 * new thermal coal capacity is likely to be from Australia and Indonesia, with increased metallurgical coal supplied from Australia, Colombia and Mozambique;
 * the capacity of existing and proposed transport infrastructure to supply coal to the market;
 * whether government authorities respond to public concern about pollution levels from coal burning by restricting the amount of coal burnt, especially in China and India; and
 * the impact of climate and other environmental policies in constraining coal burning.

Price trends

 * Thermal coal: The April 2013-March 2014 thermal coal contract between Xstrata and Tohoku Electric was settled for US$95, a drop of 17% on the previous years contract price but a US$6.10 premium -- reflecting higher calorific values sought by the utilities - on the Newcastle spot price. One analyst told Reuters that "For suppliers, it's not a good number." The IEA state in their Medium Term Coal Market Report 2012 that the free on board cash costs for "most thermal coal from New South Wales is close to" USD $50 to USD $60 a tonne with "the exception of some high-cost producers with FOB cash costs in excess of" USD$80 a tonne.


 * In its May 2013 assessment of the coal market Deutsche Bank (DB) assessed that in its base case - where new coal projects were scaled back to match the sluggish market - real prices declined from US$92.8 in 2013 to US$85.3 by 2020. DB assessed that the total seaborne demand for thermal coal would grow only marginally by 40 million tonnes a year by 2020 even though supply capacity would be 213 million tonnes greater. In its 'bear' scenario, DB considered the construction of even greater coal supply capacity would depress prices even further, to US$72.7 in 2020 (figures in real 2013$).


 * DB estimates that over the 2013-2017 period there could be an addition 95 million tonnes exported from Indonesia, 59 million tonnes from Australia, 13 million tonnes from Russia, 12 million tonnes from Colombia and 5 million tonnes from South Africa.


 * Metallurgical coal: In March 2013 the Australian government's economic forecaster, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE), reported that high quality metallurgical coal contracted for delivery in the March quarter was "settled at around US$165 a tonne" down from US$170 a tonne in the December quarter. BREE estimated that contract prices over 2013 would average US$172 a tonne and increase slightly to US$177 in 2018 "with prices supported by high costs of marginal supply, given a growing demand". Semi-soft coking coal sells for approximately US$40-50 a tonne less than high quality metallurgical coal.


 * While the second quarter contract price settled at US$172 a tonnes, a May 2013 survey of analysts by Bloomberg estimated that the third quarter contract price may be settled at approximately US$165 a tonne.


 * The IEA state in their Medium Term Coal Market Report 2012 that the free on board cash costs for "a large share" of metallurgical coal from Queensland -- where approximately half the export markets supply originates from -- "should lie in the range from USD85/t to USD 100/t."

Current exporters to Pacific basin coal markets
Of the 573 million tonnes of seaborne thermal coal in 2011 imported by Pacific Basin countries, the International Energy Agency estimates that 478 million tonnes came from Pacific basin exporters, primarily Indonesia and Australia. A further 42 million tonnes came from South Africa and 34 million tonnes from Russia. (Due to their location, South Africa and Russia supply both the Pacific and Atlantic coal markets.) A further 19 million tonnes of thermal coal was exported from exporters in the Atlantic coal market.

The IEA also estimates that in 2011 163 million tonnes of metallurgical coal were imported by Pacific Basin countries.

Australia
Australia is currently the second largest exporter of thermal coal and largest exporter of metallurgical coal into the Pacific coal basin.


 * Thermal coal exports: 187 million tonnes (2012-13 estimate) The largest destinations in 2011-12 (in rounded figures) were: Japan (70 mt), South Korea (29mt), China (28 mt) and Taiwan (18mt). ("Other" 42mt).


 * Metallurgical coal exports: 153 million tonnes (2012-13 estimate) The largest destinations in 2011-12 (in rounded figures) were: Japan (40 mt), India (29mt), European Union (18mt), South Korea (9mt) and China (10 mt). ("Other" 30mt). BREE estimates that Australian met coal exports could grow to 218 million tonnes by 2018.


 * Costs and Price trends: Costs of coal production have increased significantly in recent years due to the appreciation of the Australian dollar compared to the US$ (coal contracts are negotiated in USD) and higher labour costs and skills shortages due to the resources boom in Australia. With 80% of Australian coal coming from open cut mines, the cost of diesel has a significant impact on production costs. A further complicating factor for exporters in a sluggish market is that many exporters entered into 'take or pay' contracts with rail companies at the height of the coal export boom.


 * Proposed new mines: The Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics October 2012 listing of new resources project identified 6 projects which had recently been completed, 17 which companies were committed to, 63 which were at the feasibility stage, and a further 14 which had been announced. Of these, 14 were in New South Wales, 44 in Queensland and 1 in Western Australia.


 * Thermal coal mines: New thermal coal mines which have been proposed are Rio Tinto's Mt Pleasant mine in the Hunter Valley (8 million tonnes per annum), Xstrata's Rolleston mine in the Bowen Basin in Queensland (13.9 mtpa), GVK's Alpha project in the Galilee Basin (24 mtpa), Waratah Coal's China First Project in the Galilee Basin (14 mtpa) and Xstrata's Wandoan coal project in the Surat Basin (22 mtpa). While, at best, these projects would not be commissioned until later this decade, combined they would add approximately 80 million tonnes a year adding significant downwards pressure on prices.


 * Metallurgical coal mines: BHP Billiton is currently completing the construction of a number of metallurgical coal projects: the Daunia mine (4.5 mtpa), extending and expanding the Broadmeadow mine (extra 0.4mtpa and extending mine life for 21 years), the Caval Ridge Project (5.5 mtpa) and Appin Area 9 (3.5 mtpa).


 * Infrastructure constraints: The industry is in the process of completing major export terminal expansions. The third Newcastle coal loader is currently almost two-thirds completed, which will expanded capacity from 53 million tonnes to 66 million tonnes. It is scheduled to be completed in 2014. The Hay Point coal terminal is also being expanded from 44 million tonnes per annum to 55 million tonnes a year. It is scheduled to be completed in 2014. However, other mooted coal export terminals have been shelved or delayed. The proposed Abbott Point coal terminals no 4-9 have been shelved, BHP Billiton's Abbott Point coal terminal 2 has been delayed. The proposed T4 terminal in Newcastle has been delayed by at least three years and may be dropped altogether.

Canada

 * Thermal coal exports: The IEA reports that Canada exported 6 million tonnes of thermal coal but does not specifically mention whether it all went to the Pacific market.


 * Metallurgical coal exports: BREE estimates that Canadian met coal exports could grow marginally from the 30 million tonnes exported in 2012 to 34 million tonnes by 2018.


 * Costs and Price trends: The IEA note that Canada has "comparatively low mining costs, but inland transport distances are high and therefore rail tariffs comprise a large proportion of FOB costs. FOB cash-costs in Canada were estimated at around USD 105/t."


 * Proposed new mines:


 * Infrastructure constraints: The three coal export terminals on the west coast of Canada are: Ridley Terminals Prince Rupert Port with a capacity of 12 million tonnes a year, Neptune Terminals Neptune Bulk Terminal Canada, with a capacity of 18 million tonnes a year and Westshore Terminals Holdings Westshore Terminals with a capacity of approximately 33 million tonnes a year. A 12 million tonne a year expansion of Prince Rupert Port is currently underway while Neptune and Westshore terminals have recently been expanded.


 * Notes: The IEA notes that Canadian metallurgical coal exports are at the high end of the supply cost curve with average free on board costs of USD100 a tonne. "Part of this is due to the strategic behaviour of Japanese steel mills, which have kept Canada in the international trade as a credible alternative to Australia's metallurgical supply."

Colombia

 * Thermal coal exports: The IEA estimates that while 67 million tonnes of thermal coal was exported in 2011, only 8.3 million tonnes was to the Pacific market. Exports are dominated by three companies - Drummond which operates the La Loma mine; a consortium of BHP Billiton, Xstrata and Anglo American from their Cerrejon coal mine; and Glencore which operates the Prodeco mine.


 * Metallurgical coal exports: negligible


 * Costs and Price trends: When thermal coal prices were high in 2010 and freight costs low, Colombian thermal coal grew from almost none exported to the Pacific Basin to over 11 million tonnes. The IEA states that "Colombia's low mine-mouth cash-costs (large scale open pit operations), short transport distances and sufficiently available port capacity makes it one of the world's lowest cost exporters."


 * Proposed new mines: The construction of the 'P40' project at the Cerrejon mine and associated port, to expand the production of saleable thermal coal by 8 million tonnes a year to 40 million tonnes, is almost two-thirds complete. The US$1.3 billion project, which was approved in 2011, is scheduled to be completed in late 2013 with production proposed to ramp up to full production by 2015.


 * Infrastructure constraints: Major investments in both mine and port expansions are now being completed. In early 2013 Prodeco completed the doubling of capacity of the Puerto Prodeco coal port to 21 million tonnes. As noted above, the capacity of the port associated with the Cerrejon mine is expected to increase by 8 million tonnes in 2015.


 * While the IEA have suggested that the addition of a new lane in the Panama Canal, due to be commissioned in 2015, would increase Colombian coal exports to the Pacific market. While the route via Panama would be 7000 kilometres shorter than ships travelling via the Atlantic, some industry analysts doubt that it will make much difference. The new lane would cater for ships up tp approximately 125,000 tonnes. While this would cater for Panamax ships of approximately 75,000 tonnes, it couldn't handle Capesize vessels of 175,000 tonnes.


 * Notes: The IEA notes that the quality of thermal coal produced in Colombia, along with that from Indonesia, "continues to decrease". However, demand for 'off-spec coal' has increased in the Pacific market.

Indonesia

 * Thermal coal exports: The IEA report that in 2011 Indonesia exported 309 million tonnes of thermal coal, 95% of which went to countries in the Pacific market. Deutsche Bank estimated exports at 347 million tonnes in 2012.


 * Metallurgical coal exports: negligible


 * Costs and Price trends: The IEA notes that the operating costs of Indonesia coal mining companies have increased by almost 20% since 2009 due to increasing labour and oil costs. A higher oil price increases the cost of production from truck-and-shovel open cut mines. Approximately a quarter of export coal relies on truck transport from the mine to the port, making it vulnerable to increased fuel prices. Increased depth of coal seams increased the cost of removing overburden. Despite these cost pressures, the IEA notes that "production costs remain among the world's lowest, resulting in FOB costs between USD 40/t to USD 55/t."


 * In spite of the falling quality, Deutsche Bank estimates that Indonesian coal production could continue growing rapidly to approximately 582 million tonnes in 2020.


 * Proposed new mines: Deutsche Bank estimates that four large mines -- Adaro Wara, Kaltim Prima Coal Sangatta, Kideco Samarangau and Tekno Orbit Persada -- could account for over tho-thirds of the growth in production in Indonesia this decade. While the last project, which has not been built, faces an uncertain future, DB found that all the projects would be financially viable in the current price scenarios.


 * Infrastructure constraints:


 * Notes: Approximately 93% of Indonesian coal comes from large, low-cost open cut mines in Kalimantan with the remainder from Sumatra. The IEA note that from 2000 to 2011 Indonesian coal exports grew by 250 million tonnes. "Due to its proximity to importing countries in Asia, Indonesia accounts for more than 70% of the growth in seaborne thermal coal market over the last 11 years," the IEA reported. They also noted that "no matter how low freight rates fall, the low calorific value of most of Indonesian coal is a serious constraint to substitute the higher calorific coal used in high-efficiency European and North American boilers."


 * The IEA expects the calorific value of Indonesian coal to decline, resulting in a lower sale price. While the IEA expects the bulk of Indonesian supply to remain in the low-cost half of the global supply, some mines will become high cost producers. However, the IEA also notes while coal quality has declined, in recent years there has been increasing demand for 'off-spec coal' in the Pacific market. While Indonesian exports have a freight advantage over supplies from Australia and South Africa, new mines are likely to have higher internal transport costs.


 * Deutsche Bank also noted that Indonesia was depleting its coal resource at a rapid rate, with 17 years production available based on current known reserves. Other factors affecting Indonesian exports are the level of domestic demand, possible regulations ensuring reserves are retained for future domestic power stations and restrictions on foreign investment.

Mongolia
While Mongolia was touted as a major new coal exporting country at the height of the boom, the Chinese economic slow down has hit coal exports hard. In 2012 and early 2013 coal exports to China slumped.


 * Thermal coal exports: The IEA estimates that exports were approximately 2 million tonnes in 2011, all by truck to China.


 * Metallurgical coal exports: Exports are estimated by the IEA to have reached 20 million tonnes in 2011, all by truck to China. Similar volumes were exported in 2012.


 * Price trends:


 * Proposed new mines:


 * Infrastructure constraints: In 2009 a World Bank review of potential coal mining developments suggested that Mongolia could dominate China's increasing demand for coking coal. A separate Australian government report indicated that the obvious customers for met coal would be the steel mills in China’s north and west. However, it considered that its prospects for exporting thermal coal were "much more marginal" as a result of China's substantial cheap domestic supplies and the significant freight costs in getting Mongolian coal to the market. The potential for a major expansion in coal exports is likely to hinge on the development and cost of new rail lines either though China or Russia. As of May 2013, the Mongolian government is seeking a private partner to develop a 260-kilometer railway from the Tavan Tolgoi coal fields to the Chinese border.


 * Notes:

Mozambique

 * Thermal coal exports: In 2012 exports were approximately 2 million tonnes with 1.2 million tonnes from Vale's Moatize mine 0.8 million tonnes from Rio Tinto Coal Mozambique's Benga coal mine.


 * Metallurgical coal exports: In 2012 exports were approximately 3.9 million tonnes with 2.5 million tonnes from Vale's Moatize mine and 1.4 million tonnes from Rio Tinto Coal Mozambique's Benga coal mine.


 * Price trends: In May 2013 Rio Tinto stated that due to low global prices and transport constraints they were cutting 70 staff.


 * Proposed new mines:Vale's Moatize mine is being expanded from its current production level of 11 million tonnes a year to 22 million tonnes a year. Approximately 70% of the mine's output is metallurgical coal and the remainder thermal coal.


 * Infrastructure constraints: The single biggest challenge for the development of an export coal industry is the capacity of railway lines bewteen the coalfields and the port. The existing 660 km long Sena railway which runs from Moatize, in the centre of Mozambique, to the port of Beira, is currently limited to approximately 6 million tonnes a year. The railway line, reinstated with a loan from the World Bank, is vulnerable to flooding. In February 2013 flood resulted in the railway being shut down for several weeks forcing Vale and Rio Tinto to suspend exports. The port of Beira also requires constant dredging to remain operational.


 * Vale is currently developing Nacala Corridor project, a 912 kilometre long railway to connect the Moatize mine with a new coal export terminal at Nacala. The project involves upgrading 682 kilometres of existing railroad and building a new 230-kilometre section. Vale has allocated US$1.4 billion in 2013 for the project along with the expansion of its Moatize mine. The railway line is proposed to cost $4.4 billion and be completed in the second half of 2014. The company has also commenced a US$2 billion expansion of the Moatize mine to provide an additional capacity of 11 million tonnes a year, doubling the mine output, which is scheduled to be completed in in the second half of 2015. Vale have variously reported the Nacala railway line as planned to have a capacity of 18 million tonnes a year and 20 million tonnes. Vale stated in an April 2013 investor call that the first shipment through the port was scheduled for January 2014.


 * In July 2013 the Mozambique government is scheduled to select a winning bidder from six preferred bidders for the construction of a new 525 kilometre rail line from Tete province to Macuse and a new 25 million tonne a year multi-cargo port. The government wants the new port to be capable of being doubled in capacity. The bid winner will be required to fund the project, estimated to cost US$3 billion. Rio Tinto is one of the six preferred bidders though Transport Minister Paulo Zucula has rejected a push by Rio Tinto for "an exclusive line, just for Rio Tinto. Mozambique doesn't work on those principles". (See Moatize to Macuse railway line.)


 * Security: Coal exports via the Sena railway line have also been disrupted following violent clashes between the ruling Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (Frelimo) and its former civil war combatants, Renamo. The Sena railway runs near Renamo's stronghold in the Gorongosa area. In June 2013 Renamo threatened to block the railway line following government troops moving into the area near Beira Port following an attack on a government arms depot in which six soldiers were killed. Following the clashes Rio Tinto stated that it had "paused our operations on the rail line while we assess the current situation in Mozambique."


 * Notes:

Russia

 * Thermal coal exports: The IEA estimates that in 2011 34 million tonnes was exported to the seaborne Pacific coal market, primarily to China, India and Korea.


 * Metallurgical coal exports: The IEA estimates that exports were 4 million tonnes in 2011.


 * Price trends:


 * Proposed new mines:


 * Infrastructure constraints: Eastern Russia coal producers rely on the Trans-Siberian railway, which connects coal producing regions with ports at Vostochny, Nakhodka and Posyet. The Baikal-Amur railway runs to the port of Vanino. ArgusMedia reported in late 2012 that both railway lines "are operating at full capacity". ArgusMedia noted that while there have been increasing exports of coal from China to Russia, the capacity may be limited to approximately 3 million tonnes a year due to limits of the Chinese rail system.


 * In early 2013 Mechel bought a majority stake in the Vanino Sea Trade Port on Russia's Pacific coast. Mechel have stated that, with little additional expense, the port's coal export capacity could be increased to 7 million tonnes a year in 2013. The company has also flagged the possibility of a new export terminal being built within the next five years. The port is approximately 1,500 km from the company’s Yakutia coal assets.


 * Notes:

South Africa

 * Thermal coal exports: The IEA estimates that in 2011 42 million tonnes was exported to the seaborne Pacific coal market. This represents 60% of its thermal coal exports, a major switch from the start of the century when the Pacific coal market accounted for only 20% of South African thermal coal exports.


 * Metallurgical coal exports: ? The IEA estimates noted that by 2017 met coal exports from South Africa could increase but did not indicate a likely volume beyond stating thst it would be relatively small.


 * Costs and Price trends Coal production costs in South Africa have increased due to the the appreciation of the South African currency, increased diesel costs and wages. However, Deutsche Bank estimate that current an


 * Proposed new mines: Resource Generation have proposed the Boikarabelo mine, a 2 million tonne per annum project with two long-term off take agreements: a 20 year agreement with Bhustan Steel and a 38 year agreement with CESC. It is also proposed that the mine deliver 3 million tonnes to Eskom for domestic power stations.


 * Infrastructure constraints: Since 2010 The Richards Bay Coal Terminal has had a nominal capacity of 91 million tonnes but over most of the last decade exports have hovered around 70 million tonnes. Deutsche Bank estimates that exports in the 2013 to 2017 period exports may grow by only 5 million tonnes a year. The Matola coal terminal in Maputo, Mozambique, which is mainly used for South African coal, has a capacity of 6 million tonnes. The terminal is currently undergoing a minor expansion to lift capacity to 7.3 million tonnes a year.


 * Notes: As South African coal can be readily supplied to either the Atlantic or Pacific coal market, it plays the role of a 'swing producer'. When prices were high and there was strong demand for lower quality coal at the height of the recent coal boom, exports from South Africa increased to the Pacific market. This had the flow on effect of allowing increased coal exports from Colombia and eastern US into the Atlantic market. Coal exported from South Africa to Europe requires washing to meet quality standards. Washing is estimated to increase coal costs by USD$5 a tonne.

United States

 * Thermal coal exports: 2012 thermal coal exports were 41 million tonnes, though most was from eastern ports. Declining coal-fired generation is leading producers to turn to exports. However, the cheapest coal to produce is from the Powder River Basin but exporters have long distances for limited capacity through Canadian ports which are primarily used for metallurgical coal exports.


 * Metallurgical coal exports:


 * Costs and Price trends


 * Proposed new mines:


 * Infrastructure constraints: In the absence of approval for coal export terminals on the US West Coast, exports from the US will be relatively minor volumes through Canadian ports.


 * Notes:

New Zealand

 * Thermal coal exports: none


 * Metallurgical coal exports: In 2011-12 approximately 2.5 million tonnes of coal were exported.


 * Costs and Price trends:


 * Proposed new mines: The Australian company, Bathurst Resources, has plans for a two million tonne a year coal export operation from the proposed Escarpment mine. Bathurst Resources mine proposals are the subject of legal challenges by environmental groups. The government-owned Solid Energy also has proposals for expanded exports. However, Solid Energy has recorded major financial losses and is rationalising its operations.


 * Infrastructure constraints: The railway line from the West Coast to Christchurch has a capacity of approximately 5 million tonnes a year while the coal export terminal at Lyttleton has a current capacity of 2.5 million tonnes. Following the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, a proposed expansion of the coal terminal was shelved. Bathurst Resources have built a 9,000 tonnes coal storage shed at Westport port and a shed at Port Taranaki on the north island. However, further port facilities will be required if Bathurst Resources Escarpment mine proceeds.


 * Notes:

Current Pacific basin coal importing countries

 * China: In 2012 China imported approximately 227 million tonnes of coal, approximately 21% of the seaborne thermal coal trade. However, imports represent approximately 7% of all coal consumed. China produces approximately 3,900 million tonnes or 46% of global thermal coal. While Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Shaanxi the provinces accounted for over half the national production, major new mines are likely in Xinjiang province which has massive near surface deposits but limited transport infrastructure. Increased domestic production and new internal railway infrastructure may result in slower growth of imports.


 * Thermal coal: In 2011 imports from Indonesia (62.9 million tonnes), Vietnam (22 million tonnes), Australia (20.5 million tonnes), North Korea (11 million tonnes)


 * India: In 2012 domestic production of 557 million tonnes at an estimated cash cost of US$18 a tonne. However, much of Indian coal has a low calorific value and can a high ash content. Thermal coal imports were approximately 119 million tonnes or approximately 12% of the global seaborne trade. The higher costs of imported coal have triggered financial problems for private power generators which entered into power purchase agreements with fixed prices predicated on low Indonesian coal prices prior to the country adopting a form of export parity pricing.


 * Thermal coal: 2011 imports from Indonesia (73.6 million tonnes) and South Africa (170,000 tonnes)


 * Japan
 * Thermal coal: 2011 imports from Australia (71.1 million tonnes) and Indonesia (35 million tonnes);


 * South Korea
 * Thermal coal: 2011 imports from Indonesia (40.2 million tonnes) and Australia (32.6 million tonnes);


 * Taiwan
 * Thermal coal: 2011 imports from Indonesia (27.3 million tonnes) and Australia (26.3 million tonnes);

Related SourceWatch articles

 * Annual Japan - Australia thermal coal negotiations

External resources

 * International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012, International Energy Agency, November 2012. (Some limited information from the report is available for free. The whole report costs €120 (pdf version).
 * International Energy Agency, Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2012 -- Market Trends and Projections to 2017, International Energy Agency, December 2012. (Some limited information from the report is available for free. The whole report costs €80 (pdf version).
 * Ian Cronshaw, "An introduction to thermal coal markets", Resources and Energy Quarterly March 2013, pages 106-113.