India's coal rush - December 2012 update

2007-2011: India's coal rush gains speed
As shown in Table 1 below, India's coal plant capacity was relatively stagnant through the end of the 10th Plan on March 31, 2007. Since then, growth has been rapid, including a 79% increase in capacity from March 31, 2007 through May 31, 2012 (mostly since the beginning of 2010) and an additional 76% increase represented by projects currently under construction.

2012: The boom has slowed, but plenty of projects remain in the pipeline
In August 2011, a study by Prayas Energy Group found approximately 590,000 megawatts (MW) of coal projects in the pipeline, having received or expecting imminent environmental approval. However, since the release of the Prayas study there has been a major slowdown among planners of new coal capacity. As shown in Table 2, 45,230 MW of projects were deferred (i.e. progress was on hold) as of December 31, 2012, and an additional 26,420 MW of projects had been cancelled. The reasons for the slowdown were multiple: (1) Dramatic rises in the cost of imported coal; (2) Insufficiency in domestic coal output; (3) An unfolding domestic crisis over the integrity of the coal allocation process, known as "Coalgate," (4) Difficulties obtaining financing. Nevertheless, 103,292 MW or projects were under construction as of December 31, 2012 and an additional 51,520 MW of projects were in advanced development, having achieved most milestones (permits, water, land, coal, and financing).

Within India, grassroots opposition to coal continues to be intense -- and the opposition is showing success
Table 5 shows the locations of 39 plants that have been the subject of opposition. More details may be found at Opposition to coal in India. To date, clashes over coal mines, plants, and rail lines have been less intense in 2012 than in 2011. That year saw large scale-scale protests in numerous locations, including multiple cases of violent police action against rural protesters. Among such incidents were the following:
 * In January 2011 in Bihar, a farmer was killed during protests against the Nabinagar Super Thermal Power Project.
 * In January 2011 in Chhattisgarh, 25 people were injured and over 100 imprisoned during protests against the KSK Mahanadi Power Project.
 * In February 2011 in Andhra Pradesh, two people were killed and 25 injured during protests in Srikakulam against a plant proposed by East Coast Energy.
 * In April 2011 in Jharkand, four people were killed and 21 injured during protests against over the clearing of land owned by Bharat Coking Coal Limited.
 * In August 2011 in Punjab, a farmer was killed and others injured during protests against the Gobindpura power station.
 * In October 2011 in Andhra Pradesh, villagers were attacked by police and a doctor leading the protests beaten during hearings on a coal plant in Ankulapaturu village.
 * In November 2011 in Jharkhand, anti-coal organizer Sister Valsa John was hacked to death, allegedly by agents of local mining companies.

Opponents have halted 44% of proposed plants -- that's 5 times the expected attrition rate
In cases where opposition to coal plants has been reported, it appears that the opposition has had a high rate of success. As shown in Table 3 below, the results are as follows:


 * Plants deferred - 11
 * Plants cancelled - 6
 * Total number deferred or cancelled - 17
 * Total number of plants with reported opposition - 39
 * Success rate for opponents - 44%

The success rate of 44% compares to approximately 9% of coal projects deferred or cancelled overall in India (48 out of 549 projects, as shown in Table 4 above). The result shows that when communities use employ grassroots tactics to oppose coal plant proposals that threaten to encroach on their land, water, crops, or fisheries, their chances of seeing a coal plant deferred or cancelled increase fivefold over the average rate for the country as a whole.

Opponents have been particularly successful in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra
As shown in Table 4, two states, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra, account for 29,600 MW of cancelled or deferred projects, nearly half of the 64,070 MW of cancelled or deferred projects for the nation as a whole.

Regional analysis
As shown in the Google map here, proposed coal projects are located in nearly all parts of India. However, as shown by the table below, some states have a greater amount of proposed capacity additions than others, with Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Maharashtra accounting for 36% of all capacity under development, and 94% of all development taking place in 12 of India's 28 states.

Region-by-region discussion
While coal plants are being built and planned in all parts of India, the following are areas of particular concentration:


 * Western Maharashtra: Along the Konkan Coast, mostly to the south of Mumbai southward along the coast, at least a dozen projects totaling 25,785 MW have been proposed. However, none of these projects is in the Construction or Advanced Development category, and only one project, the Kinebodi power station, is in the Early Development stage. Other projects are considered Proposed, (i.e. no significant progress toward permits, land, etc.), Uncertain, Deferred, or Cancelled. A significant victory recently was the decision by Tata Power to place the Coastal Maharashtra Project on hold.


 * Eastern Maharashtra: There are two concentrations, one around Nagpur and the other around Chandrapur. Around Napur, there are nine projects totaling 6870 MW. Of these, five projects are already in Construction or Operating. The remaining 4 projects are in Early Development or Unconfirmed. Around Chandrapur, there are 14 projects totaling 8,930 MW. Six of these projects are in Construction or Operating. Two are in Advanced Development.


 * Orissa: Proposed coal plants in Orissa are concentrated in three areas: (1) the Jharsuguda District, a mining area in northwest Orissa, (2) the Angul District, a mining area in central Orissa, and (3) the Cuttack/Bhubaneshwar area in eastern Orissa. Several other proposed projects are distributed across the state; three are located on or close to the coast, in Ganjam, Paradip, and Sakhigopal.


 * Chhattisgarh: Proposed coal plants are concentrated around Korba, around Raigarh, and around Champa and Janjgir.


 * Madhya Pradesh: One concentration of proposed coal plants is in the Singrauli district, which is already among the most intensely mined and polluted locations in India. Another concentration is farther to the southwest along Highway 78 near Anuppur and Shahdol.


 * Andhra Pradesh: The bulk of proposed coal plants stretch along the coast with one cluster south of Nellor and another south of Visakhapatnam. There aer also a number of projects proposed for the interior, both north and south of Hyderabad.


 * Jharkhand: Proposals are distributed around the state, with no single major concentration.


 * Tamil Nadu: There are three areas of concentration: around Chennai on the north coast, around Neyveli on the central coast, and around Thoothukudi on the south coast.


 * Uttar Pradesh: Plants are distributed across the state, with a particular concentration in the Singrauli district.


 * Bihar: Most projects remain in an early stage of development. There are three small clusters, one around Aurangabad, one arond Lahisarai, and one around Banka.


 *  Gujarat: Proposed plants are concentrated around the Gulf of Kutch and around the Gulf of Khambhat.


 * Karnataka: Most proposed projects are in the interior, some south of Bijapur, some south of Gulbarga, some around Devarsugur, and some west of Bellary.

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