Talk:Peak oil: we have oil

Relocated posting by 66.239.174.14 from article page - --Bob Burton 04:28, 22 Aug 2005 (EDT) I also relocted a list of suggested Google searches -- I'm not sure that really helps all that much or sits comfortably in a listing of references that users may find useful. The Wyden ref seems to belong on another page - its not really a peak oil ref but relates to other aspects of oil policy. Maybeone someone else can find a more app home or re-instate if they think I've got it wrong.--Bob Burton 04:52, 22 Aug 2005 (EDT)


 * It's funny, despite all the rationales for the oil and gas spiral of the 1970's, how it all ended shortly after the Windfall Tax Act seized excess profits and put an end to big oil's market reach.

I find it interesting that many areas of oil production are found near current subduction zones around the world; California, Venezuela, Indonesia, etc. I also think that the following searches would be far more edifying than running around screaming, "the sky is falling, the sky is falling" which much of the 'peak oil' palaver resembles. Please see:


 * "ancient subduction zones" Google Search, try +oil +petroleum +"fossil fuel"


 * U.S. Senator Ron Wyden, Campaign of Inaction: The Federal Trade Commission's Refusal to Protect Consumer's from Consolidation, Cutbacks and Manipulation in America's Oil and Gasoline Markets An Investigative Report, wyden.senate.gov, June 15, 2004.

The Wyden ref seems to belong on another page - its not really a peak oil ref but relates to other aspects of oil policy.

I see the 'peak oil' discussion as only a part of the overall discussion of the reasons for the oil/gasoline price spiral.

I remember the 1970's price spirals quite well, hence the remark, "It's funny, despite all the rationales for the oil and gas spiral of the 1970's, how it all ended shortly after the Windfall Tax Act seized excess profits and put an end to big oil's market reach."

At that time, big oil's seizure of market power translated into a suppression of most all other industries by sapping and soaking up their marginal profits. One of the first sectors to begin failing was the transportation industry, which is beginning to happen again. In the '70s, big oil, the "seven sisters", used 'peak oil' as a cover for their market over-reach also. In the end, the only industries surviving these tactics were the ones in which big oil had no leverage, precious metals and military suppliers, etc. This market over-reach, plus the Fed's attempts to halt the price inflation resulting from capital's attempts to preserve itself in the precious metal's markets and the Fed's prior inflationary policies, caused major economic and demographic disruptions throughout the country. The oil/gas, and thus gold, price spiral in the '70s did indeed end within two years of the passage of the 1980 Windfall Profits Tax, thereby validating the origin of the economic downturn. (Note: Top immediately followed cancellation of Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act - 1973 to 1981; previously oil was withheld from market)

Therefore, it's my opinion that any discussions of peak oil should be liberally salted with discussion of alternative reasons for the cause of the current oil/gas price spiral and that is, oil's oligarchical market over-reach. Big oil used 'peak oil' in the past as a front and they're now doing it again.

Thanks, James

Divestiture
Divestiture - Competition or Nationalization Feasibility of Petroleum Industry Divestiture

Current Prices and Charts
Spot Prices & Charts Note the differentials between the Dubai spot price and the others in the first set of charts. Certainly transportation costs are a component of these differentials, however non-competition could also play a significant role. The second set of charts show spot and futures prices for Brent crude. Differentials in these could give an indication of the impact of speculation on oil prices, which doesn't appear to be as great as some believe.

Daily Spot Prices

News
Oil Doesn't Want Focus on Big Profit Republicans Ask Oil Industry for Help With Fuel Prices House Leaders Say Oil Refining Must Expand Hard winter for heating oil customers: forecasts Former secretary of state to look at safety problems at BP Underhanded route to Alaska oil An Oil-Rich Test for Bush Washington's Cold Shoulder Taking Aim at Oil's Riches American Trucking Associations Board of Directors Endorses Energy Resolution [hhttp://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=55220] More than 250 Economists Agree: Congress Should Shun Oil Price Controls, Reject Windfall Profits Taxes. This is either outright propaganda or they are confused. The Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act, which set price controls on oil was rescinded in 1982, not 1988. The Windfall Profits Tax was initiated in 1980 or 81, oil began declining within two years. It was rescinded about 1988. , wiki. See EIA/DOE chronology,. Who and what is this organisation and who funds them? The oil industry shut in production of older wells, not because they couldn't make a profit on the production from them, but through complicit noncompetition, they could make even more on drilling new wells. Big oil was an oligarchy then and is even more concentrated now. 

Is Big Oil Withholding Supply?
Fixing prices is one thing, but withholding supply, which would drive up general price levels world-wide is another. But both complicit noncompetition and withholding supply is difficult to prove.

However, the Big 5 do have their hand in every significant field in the world. Major oil companies compete with each other to grab their 'share' of significant new finds. Perhaps this competition isn't so much about production than it is about control. Some of these same companies and others are sitting on profitable leases already in their possession. Exxon Mobil and others have failed to drill on leases on Alaska's North Slope, bordering the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge, for nearly thirty years, while trying to arm-twist the Alaska and U.S. government into new concessions. Keeping prices high would be especially helpful to Exxon Mobil, they still owe $5 billion to Alaska for the 1989 spill. 

Everywhere in the world - India to Receive Oil from Russia's Far East http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=25987

Shell, Exxon Mobil and BP on China’s Short List http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=957

Pemex Invites Companies to Fenix Discussions http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=9198

Today's Analysis: Gazpronism: The New Cold War http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=18850

Arm-twisting governments - Indonesia's Oil Output Hike Hinges on East Java http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=26193

Putin Chastises Shell Over Soaring Sakhalin Bill http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=26604

Acquisitions instead of production - Acquistion gives greater control against competition.

A Large Buy Isn't a Foregone Conclusion for Shell http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=23918

Overseas Regulation Antitrust Action - UK Gets Tough On Oil Companies http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=2769

The lady sings after Gorgon reaches a high note http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,17068392%255E643,00.html Note: Big Oil is asking for long term contracts while prices are high, similar to Enron's rape of California.

Note: Noncompetition with OPEC is keeping prices artificially high. I don't think developed countries would object to the earnings of Big Oil rising from 7% to 10% provided overall prices decline.

ExxonMobil Replaces 111% of Production http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=2489

ExxonMobil Replaces Production for 9th Straight Year http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=5485

IEA urges oil producers to substantially increase investment http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10003836.shtml

North American Gas Production Mixed http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=24126

Insurance Rethink After US Oil Giants' Hurricane Claims http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=26860