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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE					          CONTACT: Cathy St. Denis October 25, 2004							                  Adam Shapiro 202/667-0901

(Please note weekend contact is available: Hamilton Fish, 917-299-9261)

Nader Voters Favor Kerry Over Bush by 3-to-1 Margin Survey Finds Risk of Swaying Election to Bush Major Concern of Nader Backers

The first in-depth look at voters supporting Ralph Nader's independent candidacy finds that Senator Kerry is their second choice by a three-to-one margin over President Bush. The survey, released today by The Nation Institute, found that Nader voters have extremely negative views about President Bush and that the risk of taking votes away from Senator Kerry is by far the most important reason they give for not voting for Nader.

The survey was conducted last week by Lake Snell Perry & Associates in eight key battleground states in which Nader is on the ballot. It found that about a third of Nader supporters think Senator Kerry would do a better job than Nader on their highest priority issues - health care, jobs and the economy, and Iraq. The poll also explodes several myths about Nader supporters.

"With everyone predicting an extremely tight presidential race, it's clear that the Nader voter could be a factor in key battleground states," said Hamilton Fish, the President of The Nation Institute. "We wanted to get a better sense of who the Nader supporters are, how they think, and what moves them."

The survey was conducted in Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, West Virginia, for The Nation Institute, a public foundation dedicated to an independent, free press.

"These findings give us a clearer picture of the Nader voters of 2004," said pollster Celinda Lake. "They are very different than his 2000 supporters. They're weighing the risks of taking votes away from Kerry.  And there are clear indications that they'd be susceptible to messages from Kerry on their top issues."

Among the key findings of the Lake Snell Perry/Nation Institute poll are:

One-third of Nader voters don't have a second choice for president, but the two-thirds who do pick Kerry over Bush by 49-17 percent, with 11 percent undecided.

The Nader voters strongly disapprove of the job Bush has done as President, with only 16 percent approving and 81 percent disapproving. The number one reason they volunteered for not voting for Nader is that it could keep the President in office or take votes away from Kerry, which was cited by 35 percent. The second distant choice was that Nader can't win, given by 10 percent.

The Nader voters of 2004 appear to be much different than those of 2000. There are virtually no first-time voters, only six percent, and an overwhelming 71 percent say they'd vote even if Nader was not on the ballot. Moderates outnumber liberals by two to one (56-26 percent), there are more non-college educated than college educated, and very few under the age of 30.

Their top concerns are the economy and jobs (cited by 35 percent), followed by health care and prescription drugs (31 percent), and the war in Iraq (24 percent). Only 10 percent say terrorism is among their top concerns. Interestingly, when asked who among Bush, Kerry, and Nader would do a better job on specific issues, about one-third of Nader voters say Kerry would do the best job on their top three issues, 32 percent saying he would on health care, 30 percent on the economy and jobs, and 28 percent on Iraq.

As expected, these voters think very highly of Nader, giving him a mean favorable rating of 77 on a 100-point scale (compared to a 28 for Bush and 42 for Kerry).

The survey was conducted October 17-19 of 500 registered voters (including 300 Nader voters and 200 who like Nader but are undecided or weak Kerry supporters). It has a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent.



Founded in 1966, The Nation Institute has a fundamental commitment to the values of free speech and open discourse. The Institute sponsors a number of projects including conferences, seminars, televised town hall-style meetings, e-mail and web communications, book publishing, syndicated public affairs radio programming, film production, journalism fellowships and internships.

33 IRVING PLACE, NEW YORK, NY 10003-2332 TEL: (212) 209-5400 FAX: (212) 982-4022  E-MAIL: INFO@NATIONINSTITUTE.ORG

M E M O R A N D U M

To:	Hamilton Fish The Nation Institute

From:		Lake Snell Perry & Associates Subject:	Overview of Ralph Nader Voters

Date:	    	October 21, 2004

On behalf of The Nation Institute, Lake Snell Perry & Associates conducted a poll of registered voters in selected battleground states who either support Nader today or could potentially support him on Election Day. The research gives new insights on who the Nader voters are in 2004, how they view their choices in this election and how they might shift in the final week. Highlights of the poll include:

Nader voters have very positive feelings about Nader personally giving him an average rating of 77.4 on a scale from 0 to 100. Those who are potential Nader voters also rate Nader very favorably (65.6). Nader voters are particularly likely to see their candidate as independent, for the people not the powerful, on your side, and willing to take on corporations. They volunteer that the best reason to support Nader is that he is not a Democrat or a Republican. Ralph Nader takes away support from John Kerry in battleground states, as Nader voters would still vote if Nader were not on the ballot, and they would support Kerry by three-to-one over Bush. Only 16% say they would not vote if Nader were not on the ballot.

Both Nader voters and potential Nader voters have broad and consistently negative views of Bush. They dislike Bush personally (Nader voters 28.1 on a 0-100 scale; Nader likers rate Bush 28.4) and they overwhelmingly disapprove of the job Bush is doing (77% of Nader voters and 87% negative among potential Nader voters).

Over three quarters of these voters believe the country is going in the wrong direction. On the issues of the day and the character traits important in a President fewer than 10% of these voters pick Bush as better able to do the job. Even on Iraq only 14% say Bush would do the best job.

Nearly one-third of Nader voters actually rate Kerry as the best candidate on the major issues of jobs, the war and health care - which are their top issue concerns. However, there is a difference between them when rating John Kerry. Nader voters only give Kerry a 42.0 mean rating, while potential Nader voters feel much more positive toward Kerry (63.9).

Both Nader voters and potential supporters feel that the best reason not to vote for Nader in the election is the risk of keeping Bush in office. Thirty-five percent of Nader voters and 41% of Nader likers cite this as the top reason not to vote for Nader in open-ended responses. After hearing about the consequences of 4 more years of Bush, these numbers jump to 45% and 43% respectively.

Contrary to the claims of the Nader campaign, Nader voters are not first time voters and turning out only to vote for Nader. Over 90% of both Nader voters and potential supporters have voted in the past and seven in ten (71%) of Nader voters say they would turn out to vote even if Ralph Nader were not on the ballot.

Again, contrary to conventional wisdom, both Nader voters and potential supporters are concerned with the same issues as the general voting population. The economy and jobs (Nader voters 32%; potential voters 39%), health care (Nader voters 30%; potential voters 32%), and the war in Iraq (Nader voters 25%; potential voters 23%) are the top concerns to this voting bloc. After hearing issue-based messages about the risk of four more years of Bush, Nader voters are more open to Kerry. Four in ten Nader voters find messages on the Iraq war, health care, and the economy "very convincing" as reasons to vote for Kerry.

Although the demographic and ideological make up of Nader voters and potential supporters is very similar, a critical distinction between those who merely like Nader and those who actually vote for him is who they think will win the election. By almost two-to-one Nader voters expect Bush to win, while those who only like Nader think John Kerry will win, also by almost two-to-one. If Nader voters believe that Kerry can beat Bush that may help shift them to Kerry.

These are not the typical Nader voters that we have seen in past elections. Strikingly, the ideological make up of Nader voters and likers is more moderate (56%) than liberal (26%). Nader voters are strongly independent (62%) while those who merely like him tend to be Democrats (54%). Demographically they tend to be more non-college educated than college educated - a major shift from 2000 - and tend to be under 50 years old, but only a small minority are under 30.

Survey of 500 registered voters (300 Nader voters and 200 who like Nader but are undecided or weak Kerry voters) in Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. The poll was conducted October 17-19, 2004 from a sample of Nader supporters identified in earlier polling in these states and has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

ACT/PA Summary		Page PAGE 6

Nation Institute/Nader Poll			Page PAGE 4

Lake Snell Perry & Associates

Lake Snell Perry & Associates

CELINDA C. LAKE President

ALYSIA R. SNELL Partner

MICHAEL J. PERRY Partner

DAVID MERMIN Senior Vice President

DANIEL R. GOTOFF Vice President

SUSAN KANNEL Vice President

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Second Choice of Nader Voters

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Bush Job Rating

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Which candidate do you think is going to win?

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Nader Voters

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Party ID and ideology

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